🧠 Rule Thinkers In, Not Out

slatestarcodex.com

“Imagine a black box which, when you pressed a button, would generate a scientific hypothesis. 50% of its hypotheses are false; 50% are true hypotheses as game-changing and elegant as relativity. Even despite the error rate, it’s easy to see this box would quickly surpass space capsules, da Vinci paintings, and printer ink cartridges to become the most valuable object in the world... What if the box had only a 10% success rate? A 1% success rate? My guess is: still most valuable object in the world….You have to go pretty low before the box stops being great.”

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