The Blissful Ignorance of the Narrative Fallacy

multithreaded.stitchfix.com

I love this post. Sure, it's entertaining and has a very worthwhile lesson, but I mostly love it because it so eloquently encapsulates why I fell out of love with sports:

Spoiler Alert! This post discussed the risks of the narrative fallacy and the dangers of our uncontrollable urge to explain things - even when there is nothing to explain. If you would like to continue to enjoy watching sports in all its dramatic glory then stop reading now. This post can help you to make better business decisions but may quell some of the bliss of sports entertainment. 

It goes on to explore Steph Curry's record-setting three-pointer record of November 7, 2016 as simply an unlikely yet entirely predictable point on a statistical distribution. While you may realize this to be the case, when you look hard at this fact you realize that a huge number of narratives about the world look just like it. Learning to recognize and discard these narratives will make you a more effective thinker.

The most accurate of all time is probably "because statistics", but that doesn't sell many jerseys. 

Read more...
Linkedin

Want to receive more content like this in your inbox?