Disturbance 1 is a trough of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of Southern Mexico in the Bay of Campeche, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development is possible, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the Western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving generally Northeastward.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters reconnaissance aircraft was scheduled to investigate the system yesterday afternoon, if necessary.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
According to Okaloosa County, it is quite likely that we will be impacted by this system during the Saturday afternoon/night time-frame in the form of heavy rainfall.
Additionally, there is the potential for flash flooding and a strengthening on-shore flow which can cause high risk of rip currents, high surf and minor coastal flooding.
“There is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the eventual evolution and track of this system per National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), so we will monitor and provide updates as necessary.”Read more...