This book is about luck disguised and perceived as nonluck (that is, skills) and, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (that is, determinism). It examines our failures to recognise the role chance plays in life and our tendency to assign meaning to random events.
I now pay far more attention to 'non-realized' outcomes when analysing decisions. (eg. If a man were to get rich playing Russian roulette, can he be said to have made a good decision when one of the five alternative scenarios involved death!?)
It does not matter how frequently something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear.
Professionals forget the following reality. It is not the estimate or the forecast that matters so much as the degree of confidence with the opinion.Read more...