Avoiding the Trap of Low-Knowledge, High-Confidence Theories – @Asmartbear - Wp Engine

blog.asmartbear.com

One bias (or set of biases) that is common in our industry (IMHO) is the low-knowledge, high-confidence trap.  Almost by definition we're inventing something new, so certainty is low, but confidence has to be high, otherwise we wouldn't do it. It helps to be conscious that we actually don't know what's going to happen.  Humility helps avoid big mistakes.

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