The Psychology of Prediction

www.collaborativefund.com

A useful checklist that "describes 12 common flaws, errors, and misadventures that occur in people’s heads when predictions are made."

Your willingness to believe a prediction is influenced by how much you need that prediction to be true. If you tell me you’ve found a way to double my money in a week, I’m not going to believe you by default. But if my family was starving and I owed someone money next month that I don’t have, I would listen. I would probably believe whatever crazy prediction you have, because I’d desperately want and need it to be right.

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