What is the yearly risk of another Harvey-level flood in Houston?


You’ve likely heard that the flooding in Houston following Hurricane Harvey is reportedly a 500-year or even 1000-year flood event. You’ve perhaps also heard that this is the third 500-year flood that Houston has experienced in a three-year span, which calls into serious question the usefulness or accuracy of the “500-year flood” designation. This made me wonder: what’s our actual best estimate of the yearly risk for a Harvey-level flood, according to the data? That is the question I will attempt to answer here.

Impressive work, excellent writeup 👍👍


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