The Models Were Telling Us Trump Could Win

Nate Silver, as usual, was the best of the lot when it came to forecasting this election. 538's final prediction was around 70/30 Clinton, as opposed to the 90+% chance that other establishments were giving her. This article talks about what Silver did right: stress testing. In an environment where it's impossible to know the error bars around your sample, it's the best technique a statistician has to forecast likely outcomes.

From the article: "he plays out the possibilities, makes the risks transparent, and puts you in a position to evaluate them. That is how you’re supposed to analyze situations with inherent uncertainty." 

This is an important read as both a voter and a data scientist.


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